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April 9, 2006
no disappointment this year
Because disappointment is just unfulfilled expectations. I expect very little from the Cubbies this time around.
Before I indulge myself in an embarrassingly detailed assessment of the 2006 Cubs and a terribly off-base prediction of this season's final standings, I have to offer my respect and appreciation to those who designed to bleacher expansion at Wrigley Field. Yesterday, during my first game of the year, I got to see from the inside the 1800 new seats that have been added. They look like they were always there. The "Batter's Eye Box" (a private party box in center field) is basely noticeable. Honestly, they added seats without changing a bit of the look or ambiance. Very impressive. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and ignore the fact that they're now called The Bud Light Bleachers, since no such sign is present when viewing the new seats. Now then...
The 2006 Cubs are very different from the teams of years past, including the 2003 division champs. Let's start at the beginning. Juan Pierre is a solid leadoff man. He gets on base with hits and walks. He pounds the ball into the ground. And this dude is fast. Once he's on base, everyone's uneasy, especially the opposing pitcher, which means that Todd Walker, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez will get more pitches to hit. Frankly, the lineup looks great both offensively and defensively. Jacques Jones will be a weak link and should end up hitting seventh before the end of the year. He's quick and he has a good glove and arm, but hitting for average is not his strong suit. Overall, the offense is fast and active, which should produce runs fairly regularly. The defense isn't stellar, but it'll make all the plays it's supposed to make and a few extra.
The pitching is the problem. Wood and Prior are on the DL. Again. Maddux and Zambrano are the rocks of the rotation. A great one-two. Glendon Rusch is the number 3 starter. He is, at best, a number 5. He'll give up 4-5 runs a game on average. He should be the long reliever, if Dusty insists that he is on the team. Jerome Williams can't find his release point, so he'll be in the 'pen for at least a month, unless he's needed in the rotation. The X factor is a guy named Sean Marshall, who will be the 4 starter to start the season. He's never pitched above Double-A. He's a 6-foot 7-inch lefty with a good fastball and a Zito-like curve. He's making his debut tonight in ESPN's game of the week against the Cardinals. If he has a decent game tonight, he can handle any game in the pros. So, we'll see. The other big variable is Wade Miller, who was signed over the winter but is still recovering from a shoulder surgery similar to that underwent by Wood. Miller's a little behind Wood in terms of recovery, but look for him to make a spot start now and then starting in the end of May. The bullpen is much improved, with Bob Howry and Scott Eyre setting up Dempster this year. That lets Wuertz, Williamson, and Ohman pitch the 5th through 7th innings instead of the 7th and 8th. It's all about the starting pitching. If they have a collective ERA below 5.00, the Cubs should win some games.
Now, everyone else. Here's how I see the divisions shaping up, based mostly on what I saw in players and teams last year, what I've seen in the spring, and what I've read in the papers. (By "the papers" I mean the internet and Sports Illustrated)
AL East
1. New York
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore
AL Central
1. Cleveland
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City
AL West
1. Oakland
2. Anaheim
3. Seattle
4. Texas
NL East
1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Washington
5. Florida
NL Central
1. St. Louis
2. Milwaukee
3. Houston
4. Chicago
5. Pittsburgh
6. Cincinnati
NL West
1. Los Angeles
2. San Diego
3. San Francisco
4. Arizona
5. Colorado
We'll do a progress check in a few months.
Posted by ben at April 9, 2006 3:33 PM