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October 11, 2005
take two
At last, the first round of playoff baseball is in the books. I believe I picked one winner correctly. That ain't good. Hey, at least for the winner that I picked correctly I got the number of games right, too. I'm going to try to do better with the ALCS and NLCS.
ALCS -- Los Angeles vs. Chicago
Let's start with the obvious. It would be impossible for the Angels not to be tired. Sorry for the double-negative. But it's true. They played Sunday night in New York, Monday night in Anaheim, and they're playing tonight AND tomorrow night in Chicago. That'll wear ya out in a hurry. Adrenaline will take the through 6-7 innings of Game 1, but Jenks' fastball is going to look like it's going about 120 miles a hour when he comes on in the ninth. Elsewhere, Chicago has a clear edge in starting pitching. They're healthy and their rotation is set just the way they want it. Contreras has lost once since July 2, Buehrle's a gamer, and their third pitcher (Garland) won more games during the regular season than anyone else on their staff. The bullpens are close, but the edge has to go to Anaheim here if only because they don't have to worry about the split-personality of Damaso Marte. Is he dominant? Is it impossible for him to throw a strike? Sometimes both. Sometimes neither.
Both teams excel defensively. Both teams play center fielders in left. No one has a better arm than Vlad Guerrero. Finley's and Anderson's arms are pretty good too, though they are not what they once were. On the infield, both teams are solid defensively. Really, in this aspect, it's a draw. Offense, though, is not. the Angels have a much more potent line-up, at least on paper. But those hitters may be tired. The Sox have been resting and getting healthy, not trying to save their season. They took great swings against Boston. They looked relaxed and confident at the plate. I think the pitching of the Sox will make up for any edge Los Angeles has offensively. The Sox offense surprised everyone in the ALDS. I look for more of the same from them.
White Sox in 7
The NLCS -- Houston vs. St. Louis
Let's not beat around the bush -- the Cardinals are the better team. By far. But that doesn't always translate to playoff wins. In terms of pitching, the edge has to go to the Cardinals. That's right, not Clemens, Pettitte, an Oswalt -- Carpenter, Mulder, and Morris. The Cards' rotation is lined up the way they want it, while the Astros needed Clemens to pitch three innings in relief in their clincher on Sunday. and Oswalt pitched the day before that. That means Pettitte faces Carpenter, Mulder will probably face Oswalt on short rest, and then who knows from there. The Cardinals have the edge in bullpens as well. Isringhausen is better than Lidge, and the set-up men are far better for St. Louis. Pitching edge goes to St. Louis.
The Cardinals have won games all year behind their defense. Nunez stepped in at third for the injured Rolen and didn't miss a beat. Eckstein and Grudzielanek are one of the best double play duos in the league. Their outfield defense is excellent -- far better than Houston's, which features different players almost every night. St. Louis' Yadier Molina is turning into one of the premier catchers in the game. Defensive edge goes to St. Louis.
Offense. Hardly worth mentioning. The Cardinals scored 100 more runs during the regular season than Houston. And keep in mind, the Cards weren't at full strength until the final two weeks of the season. Reggie Sanders is in a groove at the plate, Edmonds is always good for at least one homer in each series, and Pujols is, well, Pujols. Houston changed their batting order during the last week of the season in an attempt to push more runs across. Not a good sign. Also, let's not forget the embarrassment visited upon the Cardinals last year when they were swept right out of the World Series with little more than a whimper. They want to get back there badly. The best news for the Cards -- Clemens can't possibly be on the field every night. Houston will take two at home, but it won't be enough.
Cardinals in 6
Posted by ben at October 11, 2005 12:45 PM