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August 14, 2005
broken hearts
Vacations are fantastic. Apologies for the lack of notice regarding my departure. As is often the case when preparing for a trip, time was short. Now, time is anything but short, as I have nothing to do for the next two months other than go out of town in short spurts. On the docket are Las Vegas (Nevada, I hope you knew that), Gambier (Ohio), and Hot Springs (Arkansas). The time between these trips will be filled with random nothings and the occasional posting regarding those nothings. I've been home from Hawai'i (the islands of Hawai'i, or the Big Island, and Kaua'i) for a little more than a day now, and I can't figure out what best things about vacations are. The majority of my waking time was spent either reading or swimming. I read A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius by Dave Eggers. What a book. Phenomenally written. His writing style is outstanding. Any who have not yet read this book really should. I intend to pick up his other, more recent novel, You Shall Know Our Velocity, as soon as possible. I also read Jailbird by Kurt Vonnegut. In my opinion, you can't really go wrong with Vonnegut. His novels are peculiar enough to keep the reader on his toes, and the writing style is, well, Vonnegut. It's unique. He expounds upon seemingly random tidbits while still tying most of these flights of fancy together in some fashion. After spending all of my time reading, I am excited to write to my own personal blend of anyone and no one.
So, I go out of town for 10 days and the Cubs up and collapse on me, dropping eight in a row. Figures. All they'll do is break your heart. Or at least mine. From an analytic perspective, their collapse highlights the importance of starting pitching, as if last year's World Series didn't make that clear. During the latest losing streak, the starting pitching just didn't put it together. I hear a lot of moaning about Wood's absence from the rotation -- and it doesn't make any sense. Wood has never truly fulfilled the expectations of the team and the city. He has a chance to be a dominant reliever, where his explosive stuff can dominate hitters without worrying about having to face the same hitters twice. He was never consistent as a starter. Sure, he dominated at times, especially in the 2003 playoffs, but he hasn't been better than average since then. He has a new opportunity and hopefully he'll take advantage of it.
But regardless, the Cubs are cooked. They're five games under .500 for the season and they've just been swept by the Mets (not extremely embarrassing) and the Reds (so embarrassing that I wouldn't want to leave the house in the morning if I were them). During the streak, they fell below the Brewers (that's right, the Brewers) into fourth place in their division. To make the playoffs, they would have to put together the kind of streak that the Astros pulled off last year. Not likely. I see no reason to believe that they're capable of winning more than 15 or 20 more games. They'll need to go at least 35-10 over the last 45 games to have a shot. That would have them 91-71, which is probably not good enough, unless several other teams collapse dramatically and open the door for someone else, like the Cubs so kindly did last year for the Astros.
At least they're beating the Cardinals. Being in fourth place is pretty pathetic, primarily because they're looking up at the Brewers. Well, as they say, time to look towards next year.
Posted by ben at August 14, 2005 12:07 PM